Facebook
X
Pinterest
Copy Link
Every week, I analyze the evolving dynamics of the market, identifying emerging trends, shifts in momentum, and key considerations for real estate professionals. Last week, it was reported that the August Pending Home Sales Index rose to its highest level in five months and affordability also improved for the fourth consecutive month. Meanwhile, the ongoing federal government shutdown has resulted in the closure of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, impacting availability to key labor market data and complicating the Federal Reserve’s assessment of economic conditions ahead of its late-October policy meeting. In the absence of federal data, figures from private payroll provider ADP suggest a further sign of labor market weakening.
Below are key events from the final days of September and the onset of Q4.
October 6, 2025
PENDING HOME SALES CLOSE SUMMER ON A HIGH NOTE. After falling in June and July, pending home sales rose 4.0% month-over-month in August and 3.8% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Regionally, the level of contract signing was up month-over-month in the Midwest (8.7%), South (3.1%), and West (5.0%), and down slightly in the Northeast (1.1%). All four regions posted annual increases (Midwest +6.7%, South +4.2%, Northeast +2.6% and West +0.2%). Economists cite purchase mortgage application data from September as an indication that this momentum may continue. Full Story on HousingWire →
Why this Matters: Market dynamics are mirroring last year’s trend, with Q4 shaping up to be an active period. With contract activity rising both month-over-month and year-over-year across most regions, buyers and sellers alike are showing increased confidence, likely fueled by improving affordability and stabilizing mortgage rates. Maintain close engagement with hesitant clients, as marginal rate adjustments and strategic price reductions may prompt renewed interest and re-entry into the market.
U.S. HOMEBUYER AFFORDABILITY IMPROVES FOR FOURTH STRAIGHT MONTH. Homebuyer affordability strengthened in August as easing mortgage rates and rising incomes helped reduce monthly housing costs, according to new data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). The median monthly payment requested by purchase mortgage applicants declined to $2,100 in August, down $27 from July. While payments are still up 2.1% year-over-year, median earnings rose 3.2% — leaving affordability 1.1% stronger than last August. Full Story on World Property Journal →
Why this Matters: The recent improvement in homebuyer affordability is a signal that conditions are becoming more favorable for those looking to enter or re-enter the housing market. With mortgage rates easing, incomes rising, and a deceleration in home-price appreciation, homeownership is more attainable for a broader range of buyers. For buyers, revisiting payment scenarios may reveal meaningful reductions in total cost, potentially enough to restore confidence and prompt market engagement. For sellers, it’s important to review comparable sales and emphasize “total cost to own” metrics. Framing the conversation around affordability can help support realistic pricing strategies and facilitate informed decision-making.
PRIVATE PAYROLLS DECLINED IN SEPTEMBER BY 32,000 IN KEY ADP REPORT.With the Bureau of Labor Statistics closed due to the ongoing government shutdown, the Federal Reserve will potentially convene its October 28–29 policy meeting without access to the latest official employment data. ADP, the payroll processing firm, released a report on Wednesday showing a loss of 32,000 jobs in September and revised August figures downward to reflect a loss of 3,000 jobs. Despite the slowdown in hiring, wages in September grew 4.5% on an annual basis, largely unchanged from August. Full Story on CNBC →
Why this Matters: Housing choices are closely tied to employment and income trends. While limited economic data may contribute to uncertainty, your role is to help clients focus on what they can control — their own preparedness. For buyers, securing pre-approvals and reviewing payment scenarios can instill confidence and clarity. For sellers, discussing strategic pricing, property readiness, and optimal timing to list ensures they are well-positioned in the market. That personalized and tailored guidance empowers clients to move forward decisively, regardless of broader market noise.
THE BOTTOM LINE: Keep your foot on the gas pedal through year-end, as market conditions and time of year present meaningful opportunities for those who stay focused. Approach each engagement with clarity, preparation, and a streamlined strategy. Lead with confidence, communicate the numbers effectively, and establish clear expectations. When opportunities emerge, act decisively to help clients capitalize on favorable conditions.
Disclaimer: this is a compilation of industry news from trade media and industry groups; it does not share any forward-looking predictions or projections.
